Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, are expected to visit Kyiv. However, according to Zelensky, Ukraine has been waiting for their visit for quite some time.
On Wednesday, June 3rd, the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum – another of Putin’s propaganda platforms, similar to Valdai – commenced amidst an attack by “unknown” drones on a oil terminal in the city. Photos of forum participants queuing, with a thick black plume of smoke rising behind them, went viral across social networks. Putin’s speech at this forum is scheduled for Friday, June 5th. Of course, unless it’s cancelled, as Ukraine has not officially permitted its holding, just as it was with the “victory obsession” parade on May 9th in Moscow.
During his last press conference on Friday, May 29th, Putin stated that his previous declaration about the war “nearing its end” was based on an analysis of the battlefield situation, where Russian troops were allegedly “advancing in all directions every day.” The Kremlin leader is once again mistaking his desires for reality. After all, the initiative on the battlefield now belongs to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. For the second month running, the occupiers have been losing captured territories. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have gained control of the “land bridge” – the main highway – to occupied Crimea, the Kherson region, and Zaporizhzhia.
A fuel crisis is already brewing in Crimea. Limits on gasoline sales have also been introduced in Moscow, the Moscow Oblast, and St. Petersburg. Earlier, restrictions were imposed in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. Almost all major refineries in central Russia have reduced or completely halted production. Meanwhile, Western media increasingly report that the costs of the war are becoming unsustainable for the Russian budget. The Russian Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank are even proposing to Putin that military funding be cut. Conversely, the Kremlin has ordered reductions in spending on civilian sectors in preparation for declaring mobilization.
Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that he is ready for direct negotiations with Putin. In response, the Kremlin is once again threatening nuclear weapons, reminding of “systematic and consistent” strikes on Kyiv. So, is an end to the hot phase of the war before winter possible, as the Ukrainian leadership suggests? Read more in the TCH.ua article.
A Forum With a Spark: Ukraine Did Not Grant Permission
On Wednesday, June 3rd, during his visit to Kyiv, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that for the economic forum in St. Petersburg, just like the May 9th parade in Moscow, Putin would need Zelensky’s permission.
“Ukraine has achieved such successes that Putin can only organize a May 9th parade through an official decree from this president (Zelensky – Ed.). I believe that Ukraine is becoming increasingly successful, both on the front lines and in destroying part of the capabilities and potential of the Russians to continue the war,” noted the NATO Secretary General.
Indeed, according to Volodymyr Zelensky, thanks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we feel strength on the battlefield today, and we have achieved very significant progress in deep strikes against Russia. Specifically, on the night of Wednesday, June 3rd, UAVs hit the “Petersburg Oil Terminal” 1100 km from the Ukrainian border. World media reported that Ukrainian drones struck St. Petersburg just hours before the opening of “Putin’s Davos.” Social media users joked about a forum “with a spark.”
The Kremlin pretended not to notice. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov mumbled something about the “contribution of sponsors of the Kyiv regime,” again threatening a nuclear strike, while Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov justified the need to continue the war with the burning St. Petersburg oil terminal. According to him, Putin’s speech at the St. Petersburg forum will focus on economic issues, both within Russia and internationally. However, it is unlikely that the Kremlin leader will tell the truth about the real economic situation of the Russian Federation, which faces a choice: reduce military spending or continue to “cut” social services and raise taxes.
Putin Chooses War: Mobilization in Russia by Year’s End
“Russia faces a choice: reduce military financing or continue a war that will constantly require increased spending and further tax hikes, intensifying economic recession and reducing real incomes,” Oleg Vyugin, former deputy head of the Central Bank of Russia, commented to Reuters.
According to Bloomberg, Russian officials, including those from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, have warned Putin that the costs of the war are becoming unsustainable. Rising global oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East and Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz are not bringing Moscow excess profits. Experts warn that in the long term, the Kremlin will not be able to simultaneously increase military spending, balance inflation, and budget deficits. To continue the war, the Russian government will have to “cut” social services and raise taxes, or print money at an insane rate.
Since January 1, 2026, VAT in Russia has already been increased from 20% to 22%. Amendments to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation have led to losses for half of Russian businesses. The corporate profit tax was increased from 20% to 25% back in 2025. And now, preparations are underway to introduce a 20% windfall tax. The imbalance between the generously subsidized military industry and the ostensibly civilian sector has deepened further after Putin’s meeting with businesses at the end of March, where the Kremlin leader ordered businesses to “chip in” extra to the Russian treasury to cover deficits and military needs.
Although the Kremlin continuously increases payments for signing contracts (this year by an average of 25%), Putin finds it increasingly difficult to find money for this. Furthermore, analysts have recorded a slowdown in recruitment rates in Russia in the first quarter of this year. Coupled with the occupiers’ monthly losses on the front lines of about 35,000 troops, which are not covered by new contract soldiers, after the Duma elections in September, Putin will face the necessity of announcing a second wave of compulsory mobilization (the first was in September 2022).
US + Europe Format: How to Talk to Putin
According to the head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Budanov, President Zelensky has instructed to try to end the war as quickly as possible, preferably before winter. To this end, in his opinion, Ukraine has sufficient capabilities, and there are real signs that a basis for ending hostilities already exists. Indeed, in conditions where the initiative on the battlefield rests with the Ukrainian Defense Forces, a window of opportunity opens for us. However, according to experts, the enemy may find countermeasures within a few months.
In an article for Foreign Affairs, Jack Watling, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), notes that the effectiveness of Russian forces on the battlefield is currently declining, primarily due to heavy losses that are not being compensated for by recruitment volumes. In mid-May, Deputy Head of the Office of the President, Brigadier General Pavlo Palisa, provided an example: in the first quarter of this year, the Russians completely failed their recruitment campaign for drone unit personnel.
Therefore, with the correct approach, increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, supplying weapons to Ukraine, including air defense systems, and a swift end to the war in the Middle East (oil prices will fall, and thus Russian budget revenues will decrease), ceasefire negotiations are indeed possible. However, it should be noted that they are not unconditional. As we see, Russia is betting on brutal air attacks on residential buildings in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. After another such strike on Tuesday, June 2nd, Peskov stated that the war could end by the end of the day, “for this, Zelensky must order his armed forces to leave the territory of Russian regions.”
It is not out of the question that Moscow might agree to continue negotiations in a US-Ukraine-Russia format while simultaneously shelling Ukraine, particularly targeting its energy infrastructure. Regarding recent large-scale Russian attacks, especially on Kyiv, we see that the Trump administration continues to play the role of mediator, speaking of strikes “from one side or the other” (this was a statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio without any condemnation of Russia). Therefore, it would be advisable for Ukraine to involve a European representative in this negotiation process. Because one can hardly count on a strong role from the US, which seeks to improve relations with Russia and is withdrawing its troops from the European continent.
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