Planned confidential negotiations in Switzerland between the USA and Iran regarding the nuclear program are at risk of disruption due to a new fierce escalation between Israel and the Hezbollah group in Lebanon.
Consequences of Israel’s strike on Lebanon / © Associated Press
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The strategic negotiations between the USA and Iran, scheduled to start in Switzerland on Friday, have been officially postponed.
According to Bloomberg, citing its own sources, the reason for the disruption of the diplomacy round was a new large-scale escalation of hostilities between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Who and how disrupted the negotiations?
Official Tehran made a last-minute decision not to send its delegation to Switzerland. The Iranian side insisted that a prerequisite for dialogue must be a complete cessation of Israel’s military operation in Lebanon. Since the fighting in the region has not subsided, Iran decided to “put the meeting on pause.”
However, behind the scenes of the disruption lies a deeper conflict between allies:
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Iran’s Tactics: According to experts (including Bilal Bassiouni from Pangea-Risk), by delaying, Tehran is trying to force the US to put pressure on Tel Aviv. If Iran agrees to negotiations amidst the strikes on Lebanon, it will lose its main leverage.
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Israel’s Position (Benjamin Netanyahu): Despite new US attempts to announce a ceasefire, the IDF continues harsh attacks. Israel categorically refuses to withdraw troops from the border areas as long as Hezbollah poses a threat. This causes fury in Washington.
According to journalists, Donald Trump did not shy away from using profanity towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in phone conversations, accusing him of Israeli escalations literally destroying the peace memorandum with Iran.
Impact on Trump and oil prices
This disruption has been a painful political blow for US President Donald Trump. He had previously signed a memorandum of understanding with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Despite domestic criticism in the US, Trump promised that this deal would open the Strait of Hormuz, blocked due to sanctions, and save the world from a global economic crisis.
On Saturday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran “is absolutely broken militarily,” but later added optimistically at Andrews Air Force Base that the parties still have time to reach an agreement: “Otherwise, we will do things that they won’t like, but I don’t think it will come to that.”
The US has already prepared a financial “carrot” for Iran – through Qatar, the first $6 billion of Tehran’s $100 billion in assets are planned to be unfrozen for the purchase of humanitarian goods.
Military Chronicle
Against the backdrop of the diplomatic collapse, the situation in the Middle East remains critical:
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In the last Friday alone, at least 47 people died in Lebanon as a result of Israeli strikes on 80 Hezbollah targets. Israel, in turn, lost four soldiers, including a battalion commander, after militants fired over 50 shells.
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Global oil markets instantly reacted to the uncertainty: the price of Brent crude oil rose to $80 per barrel.
Although the American delegation, led by special envoy Steve Witkoff, is ready to fly to Switzerland at any moment, a new date for the start of negotiations remains unknown. Most nuclear experts agree: the 60 days stipulated by the memorandum will now definitely not be enough to conclude a full-fledged nuclear deal.
Recall that on Friday, June 19, against the backdrop of a sudden escalation of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, reports emerged of warning shots and a complete blockage of maritime transit by Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ordered all vessels via radio communication to stay away from this area for their own safety. Due to this unexpected escalation and mutual shelling, the peaceful negotiations between the US and Iran planned in Switzerland were postponed. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had previously called for all of Lebanon to be engulfed in flames after these attacks.
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