Merz calls on Putin to finally decide on Zelensky’s proposal for negotiations. However, experts warn that the fuel crisis and successful Ukrainian strikes are not yet a defeat for Russia.
Not so long ago, Donald Trump believed that Ukraine had no cards and was losing the war, so it should cede territories as demanded by Putin under the “Anchorage Formula.” In Europe, they tacitly agreed, but with one difference – the war should be frozen along the actual front line. Ukraine also agrees to this. President Zelensky has repeatedly proposed to end the war according to the formula “we stand where we stand.”
While the Trump administration was busy with the war against Iran, which lasted almost four months, negotiations in the America-Ukraine-Russia triangle, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, reached a dead end. Although, to be fair, they were doomed from the very beginning, as the Kremlin was just biding its time, and the US wanted to reach an agreement with Russia at all costs, even at the price of Ukraine’s capitulation.
But the United States did not emerge as a clear winner from the war against Iran, which weakened its position on the international stage. Ukraine, on the other hand, is demonstrating successes on the battlefield, and our “long-range sanctions” are blowing the lids off Russian oil reserves. Thus, according to Reuters, the Moscow Refinery, hit by “friendly” drones last week, will not be able to resume processing for at least the next six months. And the acute fuel shortage in Russia will persist at least until September, and possibly longer.
Europe is preparing for negotiations with Moscow. Trump, meanwhile, admits that Zelensky is doing well. And Putin has again started threatening with nuclear weapons and demands explanations from Washington. So, will Putin go for negotiations with Ukraine? Read in the material by TSN.ua.
Trump has changed his attitude: the Kremlin demands explanations
After the G7 summit in France, Emmanuel Macron stated that Donald Trump had changed his mind about Russia’s war against Ukraine – the US is no longer a neutral mediator. According to Macron, the Americans confirmed this in the text of the joint statement of the “Seven” summit. Even earlier, the French president emphasized that Trump came to the G7 believing that Ukraine was losing, but then changed his mind after seeing that Russia was not fulfilling its obligations.
A few days ago, Trump, responding to a journalist’s question about whether Zelensky was winning the war, admitted: “Well, he’s doing quite well. No matter how you look at it, he’s doing pretty well. At least he’s holding on.” At an emergency Security Council meeting, Deputy US Permanent Representative to the UN, Dan Henry, stressed that “time is not on Moscow’s side,” so Russia should reach an agreement. The Kremlin erupted with accusations against Washington in response. Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that the United States had betrayed the “spirit of Anchorage.”
“There was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal in Alaska, but it never became an agreement,” Marco Rubio responded to the Kremlin’s accusations.
Lavrov, who also accused the US in recent days of departing from its position as an objective mediator and adopting a course towards increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, in turn called Rubio’s statement “not very sophisticated.”
“If one party, in this case the US, laid out its proposals for settlement on the table regarding how to approach this crisis, and the other party expressed agreement with these proposals, then to say that there was no agreement is somewhat not very sophisticated,” Lavrov said.
This refers to the summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska in August 2025. In an open letter to Putin in early June, President Zelensky emphasized, among other things: “We heard that you were promised solutions in Alaska to some issues concerning Ukraine and Europe.”
The Kremlin calls this the “spirit/formula of Anchorage.” TSN.ua has repeatedly written that Putin understands this as Trump’s agreement during their summit in Alaska to territorial concessions from Ukraine, specifically the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbas, in exchange for starting negotiations on ending the war. Moscow flatly refused unconditional ceasefire – the first step to starting any negotiations. Moreover, let us recall that the Ukrainian president stated that the US linked the provision of security guarantees to Ukraine with territorial concessions.
Whining in the swamps: Russians don’t understand why there’s no fuel
According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Marco Rubio, along with Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who have long been awaited in Kyiv, are working on concluding a peace agreement. But this, according to him, is possible only if Putin is truly ready to join and work with others to achieve this goal. So far, the head of the Kremlin is only repeating his maximalist demands.
“Ukraine is doing extremely well. It is still ahead when it comes to innovation, for example, in drone technology. There are more of them, and they are successfully hitting important energy, defense, and auxiliary infrastructure of Russia. We see that the total production at refineries in Russia has decreased by one-third,” Mark Rutte added.
Over the past few weeks, all leading world media have reported on Ukraine’s largest drone attacks on military targets in Russia, including logistics and energy infrastructure. And the flying-off cap from the oil tank of the Moscow Refinery has become a real social media meme. The Economist, in its article, even noted that Crimea is turning into an “island of death.”
“Essentially, Crimea is being isolated by drones. And in the near future, it looks like Crimea will turn into an island,” warned Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
The fuel crisis that began in Crimea a month ago has engulfed all of Russia – the former “gas station country.” Drivers are pushing cars to gas stations, sleeping in fuel queues, and posting extensively on social media with “sincere” surprise about the gasoline deficit, its sky-high price, as well as the cost of food, without connecting it to the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
As emphasized by the president of the Center for Global Studies Strategy XXI, Mykhailo Honchar, in July we will observe very interesting phenomena, specifically regarding Moscow and the capital region, as commercial reserves of oil companies are not infinite.
A few days ago, Volodymyr Zelensky approved a 40-day SBU operation to influence Russia to end the war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz states that it is time for Putin to decide whether to agree to President Zelensky’s proposal for negotiations. The only condition, as Merz recalled, was that the meeting should not take place in Moscow, but the Kremlin refused.
However, it is not enough just to call on Putin to finally agree to resume negotiations. According to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, Europe must increase pressure on Putin and not miss the moment. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, hardliners in the Kremlin are urging Putin to consider using tactical nuclear weapons. However, it is worth recalling that before the Russians’ defeat in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions in the fall of 2022, Moscow actively intimidated the then Biden administration with the use of nuclear weapons to reduce US aid to Ukraine.
According to Niko Lange, an expert at the Munich Security Conference, the fuel crisis and the crisis in Crimea are not yet a defeat for Putin. He emphasizes that Putin is quite cynical and can use the fuel crisis to his regime’s advantage by saying: “Look, what evil Ukrainians.”
“Ukrainian strikes on Crimea are part of a strategy to create many problems for Putin simultaneously and, if possible, destabilize his regime so that he is forced to engage in serious negotiations. The situation in Crimea is unpleasant for Putin, but since he controls the Russian media, he can present it in Russia as he wishes,” Niko Lange told the German publication BILD.
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